West Valley Market Brief — September 21, 2026

West Valley Market Brief — September 21, 2026

1. The official ARMLS report confirms a slower, more balanced market

Newly available August metro data show:

• Housing supply increased from 3.77 to 4.28 months, up 13.5% in one month.
• Median days on market increased from 61 to 64 days.
• Average days on market rose from 85 to 88 days.
• Median sale price declined from $450,000 to $445,000.
• Median price per square foot declined 1% month over month and 0.8% year over year.
• Active inventory stood at 23,406 listings, essentially unchanged from one year ago.

ARMLS August STAT report, published September 4

My interpretation: This is the first official ARMLS report this fall that clearly connects the signals we have been watching: homes are taking longer, supply relative to sales has increased, and prices have softened modestly. It supports describing the market as balanced to buyer-favorable—not distressed.

Your seller conversation: “Buyers are present, but they have enough choices that an aspirational starting price can cost us the most valuable early exposure.”

Your buyer conversation: “You may have negotiating room, but we still need to distinguish an overpriced home from a well-priced property that simply needs the right buyer.”

2. Mortgage rates made a more consequential move

The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.95% on September 17, up from 6.76% the previous week and 6.66% on August 27. The 15-year average rose to 6.26%. Freddie Mac, September 17

On a $400,000 loan, principal and interest at 6.95% is approximately $2,648 per month—about $51 more than at last week’s 6.76% average and approximately $80 more than three weeks ago.

My interpretation: One weekly rate change should not dictate a real estate decision, but the cumulative increase is now large enough to affect preapproval amounts and buyer confidence.

Practical move: Have buyers refresh their payment before touring or writing. For sellers, a closing-cost or rate-buydown credit may now attract more attention than a small cosmetic upgrade or equivalent price reduction.

3. The 55+ market: CantaMia and Victory are telling different stories

CantaMia

The latest published August data remain:

• 27 homes for sale
• Median asking price: $407,444
• Median sold price: $430,000
• Median price per square foot: $249
• Median days on market: 129
• Sale-to-list ratio: 99%
• Days on market up 62.3% year over year

Realtor.com CantaMia market data

There is no newer completed monthly dataset this week. The important signal remains that reduced inventory has not produced faster sales.

For your upcoming $420,000 CantaMia listing: That price is close to the neighborhood’s published sold median, but the much stronger evidence will be the recent sales and active competition in the same approximate 1,600-square-foot range. In this buyer’s market, the upgrades help establish value, but they should support strategic pricing rather than be added dollar-for-dollar to the home’s base value.

Victory at Verrado

The current portal snapshot now reports:

• 96 active listings, unchanged from last week
• Median asking price: $585,000, previously reported at $665,000
• Median days on market: 65, previously 76
• Median asking price per square foot: $329
• New attached-home plans advertised from approximately $368,000

Current Victory listings and market facts

My interpretation: The $80,000 change in median asking price is too large to treat immediately as an across-the-board value decline. It likely reflects a changing mix of builder plans, attached homes and resale inventory. It does, however, demonstrate the breadth of choices confronting a Victory seller.

Your Victory seller conversation: Compare the property with the actual homes and builder plans competing for the same buyer—not with the neighborhood’s overall median. Current written builder incentives should be collected before finalizing a resale price.

Portal counts and boundaries can differ from ARMLS, especially when builder plans are included.

4. New Arizona HOA laws are particularly relevant to 55+ communities

Several laws affecting Arizona planned communities and condominiums took effect September 12. Important provisions include:

• Expanded HOA resale disclosures, including additional financial and association information
• A legal duty for associations to exercise discretionary authority reasonably, neutrally and without favoritism
• Greater protection against HOA foreclosure for delinquent assessments
• Planned-community HOAs may regulate backyard shade structures but may not prohibit them outright
• Certain association decisions must occur during open meetings rather than executive sessions

Arizona REALTORS® 2026 legislative update, detailed HOA-law summary

Practical implication: This is immediately relevant in CantaMia, Victory and other West Valley 55+ communities. Update disclosure checklists and make sure sellers notify their association promptly after offer acceptance. Buyers should still review the CC&Rs, budget, reserves, insurance, assessments and meeting minutes; the new law improves disclosure but does not replace due diligence.

5. Major Goodyear energy project moves forward

Goodyear has approved a special-use permit for the proposed Desert Rainbow Solar and Storage Project in southern Goodyear. Plans cover approximately 5,050 acres and call for roughly 550 megawatts of solar generation plus 550 megawatts of battery storage—enough generation to equal the annual use of approximately 165,000 homes, according to the developer.

AES project overview, Goodyear project hearing record

My interpretation: This is a long-range energy and infrastructure story, not an immediate housing-demand event. For buyers considering South Goodyear or land in Rainbow Valley, it reinforces the need to investigate planned land uses, transmission infrastructure, access and project timelines—not merely today’s surroundings.