Good Life ~ Better Living | West Valley Market Watch

August 7, 2026

The newest full ARMLS market report available today covers June closings, and it gives us a useful change in the story: demand is improving while sellers still need to compete on value. Greater Phoenix MLS sales were about 8% higher than June 2025; active inventory was 5% lower year over year; and under-contract listings have now increased year over year for 12 consecutive months. Asking prices, however, remained below last year's levels.

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Buyers Are Coming Back — But They're Shopping Differently

There's an interesting shift happening in our West Valley real estate market, and it may surprise people who have been hearing that "nothing is selling."

Buyers are buying. They're just being much more selective about what they're willing to buy.

The latest ARMLS report shows Greater Phoenix closed sales running approximately 8% ahead of last June. Even allowing for an extra business day this June, sales activity improved year over year. At the same time, active inventory was actually 5% lower than a year earlier, and the number of listings under contract has increased year over year for 12 straight months.

That's encouraging.

But it doesn't mean we've suddenly returned to the frantic seller's market of a few years ago.

Prices are still feeling pressure. ARMLS reports that asking prices have now declined year over year for 26 consecutive months, although those declines have recently moderated to roughly 2–3%.

And affordability remains part of the conversation. As of August 6, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.69%, according to Freddie Mac.

What does that look like here in the West Valley?

Recent city-level data illustrates just how local our market has become.

In Goodyear, the median sale price was approximately $478,000, up slightly year over year, while homes were taking longer to sell. Buckeye was around $400,000, down about 1.5%, and Surprise around $429,000, essentially flat compared with the prior year. Litchfield Park, where the mix of properties can make monthly numbers more volatile, was around $600,000, down approximately 4.5%.

Communities such as Estrella and Verrado shouldn't simply be lumped into citywide averages. Their amenities, age-restricted options, newer construction, lot characteristics and lifestyle appeal can create very different micro-markets.

For Buyers

This may be one of the more comfortable markets we've seen in some time.

You can compare properties, investigate neighborhoods and negotiate when a home isn't positioned correctly. But improving contract activity is also a reminder that a well-priced, desirable home can still attract competition.

For Sellers

The lesson is even clearer:

You don't have to give your house away—but you do have to compete.

Today's buyer is comparing your home against resale inventory and builder incentives. Pricing high just to "leave room to negotiate" can cause buyers to skip the property entirely.

Cathie's Take

I don't see this as a bad market. I see a market becoming more rational.

Buyers are responding to value. Sellers who understand today's competition can still make successful moves. And that's why I believe the question isn't simply, "Is this a buyer's market or a seller's market?"

A better question is:

"What opportunity does today's market create for me?"

That's what Good Life ~ Better Living is all about—understanding the real estate while never losing sight of the life behind the move.